Despite Ethiopia’s growing lead, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that Kenya’s economy will surpass Angola’s this year.
According to the IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook, Angola’s GDP would fall during this period, allowing Kenya, whose economy is expected to grow by 5.3 percent, to pass it and move up to fourth place behind Ethiopia.
Contrary to the IMF’s October 2022 forecast, Ethiopia is expected to surpass both Angola and Kenya to become Sub-Saharan Africa’s third largest economy.
Following a revision by the IMF, Ethiopia’s GDP was projected to grow from Sh16.9 trillion ($126 billion) to Sh20.9 trillion ($156.1 billion) in 2023, widening its lead over Kenya.
Absent superpowers like Morocco and Egypt, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 46 of the continent’s 54 nations.
With a GDP in current prices of $506.6 billion, Nigeria is still the region’s largest economy, followed by South Africa ($399 billion) and Ethiopia ($156.1 billion).
The Washington-based organization had estimated Kenya’s GDP to be at Sh15.7 trillion ($1117.6 billion) in October last year, but that estimate has now been revised slightly upward to Sh15.8 trillion ($118.1 billion) in the April 2023 projection.
Kenya and Ethiopia, both major producers of coffee, tea, and flowers, aspire to boost their value addition by revitalizing their textile and apparel sectors.
South Africa and Ethiopia have done better than Kenya in attracting foreign investors interested in a people with more disposable income.
Prior to Ethiopia, the IMF anticipated that Angola would have a GDP of $135 billion this year, making it the world’s third-largest economy.
The global lender, however, has not changed its estimates for 2022, which said that the west African country had eclipsed Nairobi to become the region’s third-largest economy. Angola surpassed Kenya last year, according to IMF projections from October of last year, thanks to a resurgence in growth associated with higher oil prices.
After years of contraction caused by a drop in oil prices, Angola lost this place to Kenya in 2020.
According to a research by the World Bank, the majority of forecasters expected Ethiopia’s real GDP to increase by more over six percent this year, which, while higher than last year, is still much lower than the pre-Covid-19 growth rate of nine percent recorded in 2019.
According to the World Bank’s forecast, Kenya’s real GDP will increase at a pace of 5.2 percent in 2022, making it one of the sub-Saharan African nations with a greater rate of growth than their long-term rates.